Risk verses Reward
You cannot expect to get better returns than the broad market
indexes without taking on more risk - until now...
Risk is generally thought as the amount of draw down in your investment
account you must endure while you attempt to get the average historical
return of your investments. Lets take a look at an example of the broad
market as represented by the S&P 500 index and compare it to the Nasdaq
Composite Index.
Example A - Index returns
Below you see the average returns of
both the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index.
S&P 500 index
Year of Introduction: 1957
Average Annual Return less dividends (Sept 11, 2007): 7.27%
NASDAQ Composite Index
Year of Introduction: 1971
Average Annual Return less dividends (Sept 11, 2007): 9.47%
As you know from the power of compounding, even a 2% increase in return
can be unbelievably powerful. In this example we can only go back to the
year each index started, which in the case of the Nasdaq Composite, was
1971. Still we can get an average annualized return for some comparison.
So why doesn't everybody just buy the Nasdaq index to get better
returns?
The reason is that you take on appreciably more risk as the Beta of the
Nasdaq which is 2, means that it fluctuates in price twice that of the S&P 500 index both
up and down. This means that if you were invested in the Nasdaq composite
index between 1972 and 2001, you would have endured a 69% decline in your
portfolio in the worst 12 months compared to a decline of less than half
that amount in the S&P 500 index. However, on a calendar basis the Nasdaq
index advanced 102% in 1999 compared to the S&P 500 index 18.38%. So you
can see that the fast moving Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 index can be your friend
if you were to avoid the bad times- so is it possible to participate in the better appreciation
of these indexes but without the downside risk - absolutely.
The Solution - Enhanced returns
but without the risk
PerformanceSignal has proven that you can invest in aggressive mutual
funds and index funds without taking on more risk.
According to TimerTrac, a third party auditing company, we were able to use
ProFunds Ultra series Nasdaq100 fund in our long-only strategy (strategy 2) to get
a 54.51% return between 8/21/06 and 11/29/07 (40.61% annualized) the S&P 500
index gained 14.14% during this time (10.92% annualized) and yet we
accomplished this gain with a Beta of 0.91. Beta is a way to measure risk in
your investment against another index. The broad market as represented by
the S&P 500 index has a Beta of 1.00, so we received nearly four times the
return of the broad market with a lower Beta or risk.
To make it clearer, let's break it down further...pay attention to the
worst month and quarter in the chart below.
Our audited stats between 8/21/06 and 11/29/07
|
S&P 500 index
|
ProFunds Ultra OTC w/PerformanceSignal |
| Worst Month |
-4.40% |
-3.94% |
|
| Worst Quarter |
-2.99% |
+0.41% |
|
|
S&P 500 index
|
ProFunds Ultra OTC w/PerformanceSignal |
| Best Month |
+4.33% |
+8.92% |
|
| Best Quarter |
+6.18% |
+16.13% |
|
Annualized Returns +10.92%
+40.61%
Total Returns
+14.14%
+54.51%
Sharpe Ratio
0
1.78
Ulcer Index
0.39
0.62
Beta
1.00
0.91 |
As you can see, PerformanceSignal delivers less downside and more upside
during any monthly or quarterly period.
The return you can get without additional risk is
vital to your financial success and PerformanceSignal let's you
participate in funds that historically outperform in up trending markets but
without accepting the additional risk.
In the next section "Set an aggressive goal" see how PerformanceSignal let's you
realistically set aggressive financial goals.
Next Step: Set an aggressive
Goal |